This comes from the same study as my earlier posts (every Single-A to Triple-A season from 2016 to 2023, no 2020, 100+ PA at the level, and whether the player debuted in MLB within three years). This time I wanted something you can actually use going into the offseason, so I tested a handful of simple traits and only kept the ones that passed in BOTH halves of the data: 2016-2019 and 2021-2023. A trait had to show at least 1.5 times the level's rate in each era separately, otherwise it got thrown out.
The one that came out best is simple: hitters in the youngest fifth for their level (age on July 1 compared to everyone else at that level that year) who were also in the top fifth for ISO.
| Level | Young + top-fifth ISO | All hitters at the level | 2016-19 | 2021-23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-A | 47% of 150 seasons | 11% | 44% vs 10% | 50% vs 11% |
| High-A | 61% of 137 seasons | 20% | 59% vs 20% | 65% vs 21% |
| Double-A | 85% of 168 seasons | 35% | 86% vs 35% | 83% vs 35% |
Three other traits passed the same test, they just aren't as strong:
| Trait | Single-A | High-A | Double-A |
|---|---|---|---|
| Youngest fifth for the level (hitters, no power filter) | 22% vs 11% | 41% vs 20% | 67% vs 35% |
| Starters in the top fifth of the level's pitchers by K% | 38% vs 21% | 64% vs 37% | 90% vs 52% |
| Relievers in the top fifth of the level's pitchers by K% | 17% vs 8% | 23% vs 12% | 45% vs 24% |
(First number is the group, second is every hitter, starter or reliever at that level.)
A couple of things that didn't pass, in case you're wondering: being young for the level on its own didn't pass the two-era test for pitchers, and the Triple-A versions of the starter and young-hitter lists failed because in 2021-2023 most Triple-A players got at least a cup of coffee anyway, so the list didn't stand out.
The 2026 names
Here's everyone who fit Young bats with power this season at Single-A, High-A and Double-A: 64 spots, 60 players, since Braylon Payne, Caleb Bonemer, Enddy Azocar and Jesús Báez made it at two levels. ISO is at that level only, age is on July 1, 100+ PA at the level.
Single-A (13): oldest on the list is 19.8, lowest ISO is .203
| Player | Org | Age | ISO | How he signed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Holliday | Colorado Rockies | 19.4 | .295 | 1st round |
| Luis Fragoza | Minnesota Twins | 19.7 | .284 | International signee |
| Jhonny Level | San Francisco Giants | 19.3 | .251 | International signee |
| Rylan Mills | Milwaukee Brewers | 19.8 | .249 | Round 11+ |
| Yovanny Rodriguez | New York Mets | 19.6 | .236 | International signee |
| Enddy Azocar | Baltimore Orioles | 19.3 | .235 | International signee |
| Brailyn Antunez | Milwaukee Brewers | 18.6 | .234 | International signee |
| Yostin Pena | New York Yankees | 18.7 | .229 | International signee |
| Xavier Neyens | Houston Astros | 19.7 | .222 | 1st round |
| Juneiker Caceres | Cleveland Guardians | 18.9 | .218 | International signee |
| José Anderson | Milwaukee Brewers | 19.6 | .216 | International signee |
| Pedro Blanco | Arizona Diamondbacks | 19.2 | .210 | International signee |
| Tate Southisene | Atlanta Braves | 19.7 | .203 | 1st round |
High-A (25): oldest on the list is 21.4, lowest ISO is .216
| Player | Org | Age | ISO | How he signed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Blanco Jr. | Pittsburgh Pirates | 21.1 | .319 | Undrafted |
| Caleb Bonemer | Chicago White Sox | 20.7 | .318 | Rounds 2-5 |
| Tai Peete | St. Louis Cardinals | 20.9 | .311 | 1st round |
| Braylon Payne | Milwaukee Brewers | 19.9 | .284 | 1st round |
| Nehomar Ochoa Jr. | Houston Astros | 20.9 | .271 | Round 11+ |
| Josiah Hartshorn | Chicago Cubs | 19.4 | .263 | Rounds 6-10 |
| Juan Flores | Los Angeles Angels | 20.4 | .263 | International signee |
| Devin Fitz-Gerald | Washington Nationals | 20.9 | .262 | Rounds 2-5 |
| Edward Florentino | Pittsburgh Pirates | 19.6 | .262 | International signee |
| Welbyn Francisca | Cleveland Guardians | 20.1 | .261 | International signee |
| Wyatt Sanford | Pittsburgh Pirates | 20.6 | .259 | Rounds 2-5 |
| Eric Bitonti | Milwaukee Brewers | 20.6 | .255 | Rounds 2-5 |
| Alfredo Duno | Cincinnati Reds | 20.5 | .252 | International signee |
| Emil Morales | Los Angeles Dodgers | 19.8 | .252 | International signee |
| Eric Hartman | Atlanta Braves | 20.0 | .251 | Round 11+ |
| Theo Gillen | Tampa Bay Rays | 20.8 | .247 | 1st round |
| Enddy Azocar | Baltimore Orioles | 19.3 | .246 | International signee |
| Lisbel Diaz | San Francisco Giants | 21.0 | .246 | International signee |
| Jesús Báez | St. Louis Cardinals | 21.3 | .242 | International signee |
| Josh Adamczewski | Milwaukee Brewers | 21.1 | .241 | Round 11+ |
| Yoeilin Cespedes | Boston Red Sox | 20.8 | .228 | International signee |
| Randy De Jesus | Los Angeles Angels | 21.4 | .221 | International signee |
| Felnin Celesten | Seattle Mariners | 20.8 | .220 | International signee |
| Yordany De Los Santos | Pittsburgh Pirates | 21.4 | .219 | International signee |
| Yophery Rodriguez | Boston Red Sox | 20.6 | .216 | International signee |
Double-A (26): oldest on the list is 22.6, lowest ISO is .222
| Player | Org | Age | ISO | How he signed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Fischer | Milwaukee Brewers | 22.1 | .383 | 1st round |
| Jesús Báez | St. Louis Cardinals | 21.3 | .363 | International signee |
| Manuel Pena | Arizona Diamondbacks | 22.6 | .362 | International signee |
| Lazaro Montes (MLB debut 09/01) | Seattle Mariners | 21.7 | .317 | International signee |
| Nolan Schubart | Cleveland Guardians | 22.1 | .315 | Rounds 2-5 |
| Alfonsin Rosario | Cleveland Guardians | 22.0 | .298 | Rounds 6-10 |
| Caleb Bonemer | Chicago White Sox | 20.7 | .284 | Rounds 2-5 |
| Josiah Ragsdale | Milwaukee Brewers | 22.5 | .282 | Rounds 6-10 |
| Brooks Brannon | Boston Red Sox | 22.2 | .280 | Rounds 6-10 |
| Franklin Arias | Boston Red Sox | 20.6 | .269 | International signee |
| Jace LaViolette | Cleveland Guardians | 22.6 | .269 | 1st round |
| Rainiel Rodriguez | St. Louis Cardinals | 19.5 | .264 | International signee |
| Sebastian Walcott | Texas Rangers | 20.3 | .263 | International signee |
| Xavier Isaac | Tampa Bay Rays | 22.5 | .255 | 1st round |
| Wehiwa Aloy | Baltimore Orioles | 22.4 | .254 | 1st round |
| Bryan Rincon | Philadelphia Phillies | 22.4 | .250 | Round 11+ |
| Braylon Payne | Milwaukee Brewers | 19.9 | .248 | 1st round |
| Ralphy Velazquez | Cleveland Guardians | 21.1 | .248 | 1st round |
| Josue De Paula (MLB debut 09/11) | Los Angeles Dodgers | 21.1 | .244 | Undrafted |
| Jack Gurevitch | St. Louis Cardinals | 22.3 | .242 | Rounds 2-5 |
| Arjun Nimmala | Los Angeles Angels | 20.7 | .239 | 1st round |
| Ethan Petry | Washington Nationals | 22.0 | .232 | Rounds 2-5 |
| Demetrio Crisantes | Arizona Diamondbacks | 21.8 | .230 | Rounds 6-10 |
| Murf Gray | Pittsburgh Pirates | 22.5 | .226 | Rounds 2-5 |
| Zyhir Hope | Los Angeles Dodgers | 21.4 | .226 | Round 11+ |
| Jefferson Rojas | New York Mets | 21.2 | .222 | International signee |
How they signed, counting each player once: International signee 27, 1st round 12, Rounds 2-5 8, Round 11+ 6, Rounds 6-10 5, Undrafted 2.
Caveats, since someone will ask: the percentages are for the group over seven seasons of history, not a projection for any one guy on this list, and plenty of players with these profiles still never made it. It's one season of ISO, and park and league effects aren't adjusted for. I left Triple-A off because most of the Triple-A names already debuted this year.
Happy to run a specific org or level if anyone wants it.