Follow-up to last week's post on which minor league numbers separate the guys who make it. A few people asked about draft position, so here it is on its own: every Single-A to Triple-A season from 2016 to 2023 (no 2020), anyone with 100+ PA or 100+ batters faced at the level, and whether they debuted in MLB within three years. "Real role" means 300+ MLB plate appearances (or 400+ batters faced for pitchers) in that same window.
Single-A hitters (3,515 seasons)
| How he signed | Seasons | Reached MLB in 3 yrs | Real role in 3 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st round (incl. comp round A) | 138 | 42.8% | 15.2% |
| Rounds 2-5 | 464 | 19.4% | 4.7% |
| Rounds 6-10 | 372 | 8.9% | 2.2% |
| Round 11+ | 1,020 | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| International signee | 1,316 | 9.9% | 2.6% |
| Undrafted | 205 | 5.9% | 1.0% |
A few things that jumped out:
- Even first-rounders mostly don't get a real role fast. 43% of first-round Single-A hitters debuted within three years, but only 15% got to 300 MLB plate appearances in that time.
- The gap shrinks as guys climb. Round 11+ hitters reached the majors 4.5% of the time from Single-A, 9.6% from High-A and 21.7% from Double-A. The ones who survive to Double-A are a very different group.
- International signees look like mid-round picks at Single-A and catch up later. 9.9% from Single-A (about the same as rounds 6-10), then 37.9% from Double-A, close to rounds 2-5 at 43.4%.
Hitters, first round vs round 11+, by level (reached MLB within 3 years)
| Level | 1st round | Round 11+ |
|---|---|---|
| Single-A | 42.8% | 4.5% |
| High-A | 63.2% | 9.6% |
| Double-A | 67.3% | 21.7% |
| Triple-A | 79.6% | 42.8% |
Pitchers
Draft position matters a lot for starters and a lot less for relievers.
- Single-A starters: first round 46.2%, rounds 2-5 29.4%, round 11+ 14.5%.
- Double-A starters: first round 80.3%, round 11+ 38.4%.
- Double-A relievers: rounds 2-5 32.8%, round 11+ 21.1%, international 23.2%, undrafted 22.6%. Once a reliever is in Double-A, where he was drafted barely separates anyone.
Caveats, since someone will ask: these are player-seasons, so a guy who spent two years in Single-A counts twice. Round 11+ is mostly from the old 40-round drafts before 2021. And this is history, not a projection for any one player.
Happy to run a specific level or group if anyone wants it.